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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.